The impact of climate change - specifically global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels - on tropical cyclone activity is the subject of ongoing debate and research in the scientific community. Recent catastrophic events, such as Hurricane Katrina, have given the debate a higher profile. While some evidence has been presented in order to indicate a recent upturn in tropical cyclone activity in some parts of the world, others have argued that natural variations in tropical cyclone activity - on a regional, annual and inter-decadal scale - mask any signal from the impact of global warming, which remains relatively small. Although there is no clear consensus on whether global warming is currently having any measurable impact on tropical cyclones, climate models indicate that there may be an increase in tropical cyclone intensity in the future, under continued global warming. However, the models also indicate that tropical cyclone frequency will either remain unchanged or decrease. A number of tropical cyclone scientists came together in 2006 to issue a statement on the status of understanding and research into tropical cyclones and climate change, which was presented to the World Meteorological Organization.
Fact: the strongest cyclones are getting stronger The recognition of long-term cycles in cyclone activity, however, does not negate the very real possibility that there is a causal relationship between cyclone behaviour and anthropogenic global warming either now or in the future. The notion that cyclones should increase in intensity as sea surface temperatures rise is theoretically sound and the facts are that the strongest cyclones are getting stronger. Whether we can directly attribute very intense cyclones such as Pam and its impact on Vanuatu to global warming remains to be determined. Either way, the future doesn’t look good for all locations that are prone to these events. The message is clear that we need to understand that the physical risk from tropical cyclones is increasing